The Bad News, Bad News, Good News!

What a week for Real Estate news.

Here are just a few of the headlines.

1. July existing home sales tumble by 27.2%
(Remember that's 27% below July 09's miserable #'s.)

2. New home sales reach lowest levels on record.
(Statistics for new home sales were first recorded in 1963.)

3. Tennessee ranks #2 nationally in bankruptcies.
(Nevada is #1)

4. Inventory of unsold homes reaches record highs.
(This is a major problem in the recovery of home values.)

5. Home ownership rates are lowest since the early 60's.
("The American dream" is out of grasp to so many.)

None of these headlines were news to me. I'm living it, and August figures will not be better. After a terrific March and April the market shut down, but I've seen this pattern of roller coaster recovery before.

After the 1986 tax change laws, the market went south. Savings and loan institutions were going under daily. Developers and builders were bankrupting. The inventory soared. Well it took years to come back, but one day the inventory was absorbed, and suddenly if you put your sign in the yard a contract would beat you back to the office. Although it took four years to recover during this period, we saw brief surges in sales. Like a wave rolling into the beach, sales would briefly peak only to crash on the shore and dissipate.

So whats' a seller to do. First stay in the market. Sales happen even in the slowest economic times, and when we do hit these brief spikes in sales you can be in a position to ride them to a successful conclusion where low interest rates, great prices, and selection await a qualified buyer.

The second suggestion to a seller is to be competitive in price. Values have dropped, and a seller is competing with short sales, foreclosures, and other distress sales. You have to find the price that will sell the property, and remember your home value has nothing to do with what you paid for it, or what you "have to get out of it."

The third suggestion is, you must have your home updated and in it's best condition. The buyers do not want to choose their own wall colors and carpets or remodel your kitchen. They do want a pristine home that's move in ready. With high inventories in a competitive market one negative feature can mean the difference of your home losing out to a competitor.

One day our inventory will balance, and we will be back to a sellers market. But until then, you must do everything right to be ready to catch that next sales spike and take advantage of this fabulous buyers market with 50 year lows in interest rates. And that's the good news...

Stressed To Kill!

Our state legislators have made sure that the Tennessee "militia to secure the free state" can now take our guns with us most everywhere we go. It is now within the law to take your gun to bars, parks, and churches.

Believe me, with few exceptions our second amendment rights are not under threat in Tennessee. But if the wise leaders in our legislative chambers start encouraging Buyers and Sellers to bring their guns to real estate closings, then it may be time for me to retire my real estate license and get a job as a Walmart greeter. (I wonder if they are packing heat.)

As Realtors, buyers, or sellers you know some version of this story. Mary, your Sunday school teacher, and her husband John listed their home with you and today is closing day at 5:00PM. John has been living in Atlanta for three months working at his new stressful job and has signed power of attorney for the closing. Mary is home with the three children and is leaving her job, friends, and family, and her children needed to be in the right Atlanta Schools two weeks ago. The movers are at the home and almost ready to pull out when you get the call from the closing attorney. "The home can't close today."

There are a thousand reasons a home does not close as scheduled, but whether the paperwork is not ready or the earth has just been hit by a giant meteor the results are the same. It's out of your control and you are going to hear words come out of your Sunday school teacher's mouth that could make a sailor blush, and you hope that her gun has been packed up by the movers.

Realtors at this time, it's good to drink a big glass of empathy juice. Never forget that the sale of purchase or real estate is a very stressful event for our buyers and sellers and it often coincides with another very stressful event in our customer's and client's lives.

Some homes have happy closings where the buyer is moving to a nicer home. Even then people are stressed about spending the most amount of money they have ever spent in their lifetime. But most home closings are coupled with some other stressful life event.

Job relocation, loss of a spouse, a new child on the way, health issues and loss of income are just a few examples of other major stressful events that accompany the sale and purchase of a home. That is why some seemingly small problem during the transaction is the proverbial straw that breaks the camel's back.

Real estate transactions have become more and more complicated. To nurture a transaction through selling, financing and inspections to the closing is complicated, and things will go wrong. Today's economy has made the process even more stressful with loss of values, appraisal problems, and banking that has taken a 180 degree turn from the days of free flowing money.

The stresses that our clients face in every transaction are real. Never forget it..

We Are Just Animals Running With The Herd!

It is a miracle that we all have survived to walk the face of the earth. Our survival was dependent on the survival of our parents to the age of procreation. And our existence was dependent on the survival of our grandparents, their parents and the survival of our relatives for scores of generations over thousands of years.

At some point in ancient history our most distant relatives crawled down from the tree tops. They out witted the saber tooth tigers, discovered fire, learned to make stone and iron tools, learned how to raise high caloric crops, and domesticated animals to survive.

In the process some of human survival skills were hardwired in the brain as part of our DNA in the evolutionary process. These ancient brain connections, like fear of snakes, we call instincts.

Our instincts are outdated and shaped for a lost primitive world. Some instincts, like the desire to gorge on high caloric foods, served us well when we were foraging for nuts and berries, but in today's world of super sized meals our instincts to consume large quantities of high caloric foods actually has a negative affect on our survival.

Another instinct that does not serve us well in the modern world is running with the herd. In prehistoric times running with the herd may have offered protection from wild animals and tribal enemies. But in today's world it can be questioned that individuals following logical independent thought serves us better than hanging with the herd.

A good example is in the purchase of real estate. In 2005 and 2006 the herd was buying homes in large quantities. Lot prices were at an all time high. Labor costs were at an all time high. And as you would expect prices were at an all time high. Logically a thoughtful individual, banker, or investor, could see that this was not a great time to buy, but the herds ran straight toward the cliffs ahead, and we know what happened in the stampede.

Well now we find ourselves in a period where inventories are at record highs, interest rates are at record lows, and prices are at close out sale prices and no one much is buying, because the herd is not buying.

Wake up humans! Rise above your instincts. Does "buy low and sell high" mean anything to you. Separate from the herd and try to create new brain paths of instincts to pass on to future branches of your hereditary tree.

Now is the best time to buy real estate so stop cowering with the herd and give me a call...

Reply Real Estate "When Will I Ever Learn"

Is it ever too late to learn? I hope not but a lesson that I have learned and forgot more than once is NEVER BUY ANYTHING FROM A PHONE SOLICITATION.

I may have learned my lesson this time for good after answering a call from REPLY REAL ESTATE, INC. At a time recently when I was rushed and stressed about business I got a call asking if I would like more business. "Yes" I answered, then the solution was presented to me by Reply Real Estate, Inc. For only $55 a lead I could greatly increase my business. Well I obviously did not listen or understand the program.

The leads started coming in large numbers. Oddly they always came from areas that I would not drive my car through, from people wanting homes in the affluent community of Hendersonville. I still followed up on a few, but after misinformation, slammed receivers, and bewildered prospects that I wondered why I waste my time. How do they capture these leads? I can only imagine that they must offer a promotional crack or gun give away.

Well I tried to stop the program yet the useless leads continued to come (CH CHING CH CHING). After dozens of e-mails and a big bill to pay as settlement I have finally learned my lesson.

If you are a Realtor and this story doesn't teach you not to make the same mistake as I did, I have a proposition for you. Send me money, or better, let me bank draft your account like Reply Real Estate. For only $35 a lead I will send all the leads you can stand. I will blindfold myself and put my finger down on name in the phone book. And for only $25 per lead I guarantee you will get a better quality lead from me than from Reply Real Estate.