I see the term "new normal" being used frequently to describe the real estate market in today's world. After five depressed years with no upturn in sight the phrase has real meaning to me. For several years my clients were in denial of the changes and lost values. Now we have just settled into a new paradigm accepting current conditions as normal.
So what is the "new normal"? From the perspective of a professional realtor who started taking pre-licensing classes in 1979, here are a few observations about how business has changed.
The most obvious change is in my volume of sales. In my best years I would sell about sixty homes a year. In the last five years the volume has been reduced to around twenty per year. Not only has the total number of homes sold much smaller, the prices for an average home have also dropped substantially. In 2006 probably 50% of the homes I sold were over $350,000. This year only one topped the $350k range.
Another change has been selling almost exclusively resale homes. In my old business model, 50% of my business was listing and selling new homes of small builders and developers. Sadly many of my small builder and developer clients went bankrupt, some retired, and the survivors have stopped building speculative new homes. Yes, we Realtors have been hurt by this downturn, but builders and developers have been devastated.
Another aspect of this business that has changed drastically in the last five years is the difficulty of getting the signed contract to a successful closing. Banks have been under such pressure from their past mistakes that more loans than ever are not approved. It takes a larger
down payment than I have ever seen in my career to get a loan.
If you are qualified for the loan, the pressures of banks and foreclosure sales have made it difficult to work out the appraisals which can torpedo a solid sale. And if the contract is signed, the loan is approved, and the appraisal, is OK, the professional home inspection can be a major factor in a sale not closing. The "new normal" is that every successful sale that makes it through to closing will have its nail biting, teeth gnashing moments of fear and stress.
Our roles as Realtors have also been changing. With the depressed economy, loss of a job and declining home values, our role as Realtors often turn to therapists and advisers. When prices are rising it is hard to make a real estate mistake. Now everyone is running scared and
consumer confidence is at the lowest level that I have ever seen.
The role of the Realtor has never been more important. The "new normal" is all about playing the cards you are dealt, so to speak, and helping your client to the best of your abilities. The job isn't easy, but if it was easy my clients would not need my services.
It is true that real estate has always experienced its ups and downs and this market too will turn around one day. I started to pursue a real estate career in 1979. While taking my pre-licensing course, interest rates went through the roof so I delayed my entry into the real estate business until 1983. I experienced the savings and loan debacle and the dot com bubble, but this housing recession may follow me to the end of my career. I turn 65 this month, a traditional retirement age, but I plan on working well into my 70's. And for us "baby boomers" this too may be part of the "new normal".
