Day Vacations from Sumner County #2

At the end of the coldest winter season in many years my wife and I needed to escape the sofa and experience the out of doors. In the last week of January the sun reappeared, the temperatures soared to the 50's, and we decided to take a thirty minute drive to Nashville for a trek around Radnor Lake.

Radnor Lake is an unexpected jewel inside of Nashville/Davidson County. Radnor is not a natural lake. Located in a deep hollow surrounded by high ridges in southern Davidson Co., the lake was built in 1913 by the L & N Railroad.

Built at a high elevation the reservoir offered a gravity flow of water to fill the many steam locomotives and water for livestock at the Radnor Yards just south of 100 Oaks Shopping Center. The beautiful lake surrounded by forest was also a great hunting and fishing preserve for L & N officials and guest.

During the ten years after construction the lake became a haven for indigenous wildlife and migratory birds. Hunting was suspended at the request of the Ornithological Society, and the lake became a wildlife sanctuary.

The land had a quiet existence for sixty years while the areas of south Nashville and into Brentwood became the most sought after residential destinations in the greater Nashville area. The quiet existence ended when in 1962 a construction firm purchased the 747 acres around Radnor Lake for a luxury residential development. The public outcry was immediate. This started an eleven year battle to preserve the lake as a protected area. Through government, private sector and enlightened conservationists the land was preserved as Tennessee's first natural area and protected ecosystem.

It is events like this that make our country great. The beautiful area is now available to everyone during daylight hours to stroll around the lake or hike the rigorous ridge trails, to enjoy the natural beauty and observe the abundant wildlife.

On our late January hike, water foul were fishing the waters, turtles were baking on the first high 50 degree sunny day of the year, and beavers were rearranging the environment. My best memory of the day was the wind blowing across the lake and breaking up the ice which sounded like a thousand glass wind chimes.

This is a beautiful area in every season of the year. Radnor Lake can be accessed from both Granny White Pike and Franklin Road (Hwy 31) and turning on to Otter Creek Road. So take a little time, disconnect from the phone, television and computer and rest your mind and spirit in the beautiful surroundings.

The Three Reasons Why Now Is The Right Time For A Move!

For the last three years we have experienced a dreadful real estate market. The national economy has made everyone afraid to spend money or make changes in their housing status, but I am optimistic this will be a turn around year.

If you have thought about downsizing, buying an investment property for retirement, moving up in value, or moving to a lower maintenance home, there are three reasons this may be the best year ever to make a move.

The first reason is the direction of mortgage interest rates. After seeing rates hit record lows in November of about 4% on a 30 year loan, the interest rates have risen about 1% in the last two months according to TAR Digest . I am afraid that with the emergence of inflation rates will continue to rise, but current rates are still fabulous. A 2% increase in a $200,000 30 year note is a monthly payment increase of $258.00. Think monthly payment not pricing.

The second reason for making a move now is better selling conditions for existing homes. So far this year there are signs of improved consumer confidence. According to Credit.com consumers are using their credit cards again, and in my own business I see a definite increase in calls and real estate activity. Foreclosures and short sales are in decline in all but the lower price ranges in Sumner County according to Realtytrac.com. My greatest problem in sales during the past two years has been competition from foreclosures and short sales. This should be a better year for selling resale homes.

The third reason to move now is that there is a great selection of homes at excellent prices. There have been far fewer new homes built in the last three years. As homes sell and are not replaced we should see declining inventories and increasing prices. Now is a great time to find good selections before inventories decrease and prices significantly increase.

So if you need to sell or just desire to make a move, please give me a call. Let me analyze your home value, home marketability, and availability of homes in the price range in which you are interested. It is time for action to take advantage of excellent interest rates, improved selling market, and a large inventory of homes with excellent values.

Tennessee Foreclosures

It was another record year for foreclosures in 2010 according to RealtyTrac. This occurred despite the fact that many banks slowed down their foreclosure activities during the last quarter of the year due to the widely reported problems of improper documentation and procedures.

Foreclosures are the biggest problems facing real estate recovery. So how did we get to this point? It certainly started with the international belief that real estate can only go up in value. Easy and creative financing with little or no money down made perfect sense if you bought into the assumption that real estate values would continue to go up quickly. Soon after the banks found big prospects ( see blog 2/2/11 Getting Drunk and Throwing Up) in making bad loans to unqualified buyers the first wave of foreclosures began.

Demand for homes started falling, and so did home values. This led to the second wave of foreclosures. Builders and developers that were highly leveraged, and anyone who bought homes between 2001 and 2006 found themselves upside down with value less than their home loans.

These problems started on the West Coast, but within a year had spread to the entire nation plunging the country into the worst recession since the Depression. The unemployment and underemployment that resulted from the recession started the current third wave of foreclosures. People just could not afford their payments, sell their home, or refinance leaving foreclosure the only option.

When you hear the shocking statistics of foreclosure it is easy to forget that the problem is not shared equally by the country. Five states account for 51% of all foreclosures in 2010. They were California, Florida, Arizona, Illinois and Michigan. Georgia, Texas, Ohio and Nevada were other states that accounted for large percentages of the national foreclosures.

When it came to the largest numbers of foreclosures per households, Nevada, Arizona and Florida lead the nation. In Nevada one out every 11 homeowners received a foreclosure notice in 2010.

Tennessee's foreclosure problems are not as bad as many other areas of the country. Still they had a tremendous impact on our real estate market causing excessive inventory and declining values.

In Sumner County, Realty Tracs reports 691 banks owned properties. Most are single family homes, some are lots and there are even a couple of golf courses with club houses. That's a lot of future sales that will go at depressed values. The most shocking statistic is that of the 691 bank owned properties, only 57 are currently for sale at this time. Maybe I just do not understand the complexities of modern banking, but there must be a better and more profitable way to address foreclosures and liquidate this backlog of bank owned properties.

One Day Vacation Ideas

Bluegrass Underground

One of the joys of living in the Hendersonville, TN and the Sumner County area are all the great one day trips that make you feel like you are on Vacation.

Last week my wife said that we needed to find a brief getaway to move us off the sofa and end our winter hibernation. Then in the Friday Tennessean there was an article about an event that I had always wanted to attend, Bluegrass Underground.

Bluegrass Underground is a once a month concert and radio show. It showcases some of the best bluegrass musical talent in the country with performances in what might be the most unique venue in the USA.

Bluegrass Underground takes place once a month in Cumberland Caverns which is located near McMinville, Tennessee. This beautiful area of the Tennessee Ridge is home to some of the most dramatic scenery in the state. The cave is open for tours throughout the year.

The Bluegrass Underground show is located 333 feet below the caves entrance about a 15 minute escorted walk. You come to one of the caves many offshoots and walk down into the Volcano Room which has high ceilings and other cave intersections for snack bars and green room. The complete absence of outside noise and the asymmetrical room make a wonderful venue for acoustic music. I ask about the attendance for past events and they range from 250 to 800+ when Ricky Scaggs performed last year.

On the day we attended Rides In The Sky a Grammy award winning Western group headlined, and the hilarious Cleverly's did Black Eyed Peas and other techno dance music bluegrass style. Lots of fun!

If you go, enjoy the scenic drive. The Caverns are located near Fall Creek Falls, Savage Gulf, and Rock Island State Park. Take some time to explore this beautiful area of the State.

Hendersonville, TN Morning Commute

It's 7:00AM and I'm headed to the gym opposite the Nashville commuter traffic on the bypass (Hwy. 386). Brake lights are flashing at Exit 6, and all of these drivers will need another 45 minutes to cover the 18 miles to Nashville at the height of rush hour. That is unless there is rain, snow or a hiccup at Trinity Lane.

Normally there are about 75,000 cars a day running the two lanes of 386 according to the Tennessee Department of Transportation. There are alternatives to 386 like Gallatin Rd. (Hwy. 31) or Long Hollow Pike (Hwy 257), but 386 with no traffic lights or stop signs is the choice of most commuters. One of Hendersonville's and Gallatin's greatest assets is also its greatest liability for commuter traffic, Old Hickory Lake. The lake forms the southern border of all of Sumner County, and there are only two bridges spanning Old Hickory within our border.

So why do commuters go through so much stress time and expense to live in Sumner County and commute to Nashville? The simple answer is that it is worth it.

Some people move here for the great public and private schools, some for the lake, parks, and recreation, some for the lower taxes and others for the variety of houses in new safe neighborhoods. There are many compelling reasons to live in Sumner County that make the commute worthwhile.

Actually the commute to Nashville is a lot easier now than when I first moved here 33 years ago. At that time there were only two lanes of I65 into Nashville, a one lane bridge (no kidding) on Long Hollow Pike, and no Hwy 386. We have better commuting now, and we are better off than many of Nashville's other commuter cities, but the only way we can keep pace is with mass transit. Stop 30 road in Hendersonville was named for what used to be the 30th stop on the Nashville Commuter Train in the 1930's. It is time we visited their old ideas.

Commuting has never been a picnic even in the days of Hendersonville's first settler Daniel Smith. Daniel Smith's house Rock Castle still stands proud today, but two of his carpenters and his son-in-law were killed by Indians on their commute across the county. The only traffic jams were the herds of buffalo that wandered the valleys, but there were numerous other stresses and hazards from the river and animal trails that were the first area commuter routes in the 1790's.

So as you make your commute to Nashville, remember no texting, checking your emails or traveling too close to the car in front of you... and watch out for the buffalo and arrows.

2011 Predictions and Perscriptions on Life and Real Estate!

I must confess that I was happy to take down my 2010 calendar and start a new year. Everything looks good at the starting line to paraphrase an old song.

2010 was no exception. I started the first two months of 2010 building a nice inventory of properties, and in March and April I had sold more homes than I had sold for all of the previous year. Then on the first weekend of May storm clouds gathered, the flood came, the tax credit disappeared and pending sales dropped each of the next eight months from the previous year. A drop of approximately 30% from 2009's pitiful sales figures created a lot of pain and stress for home owners, the real estate industry, and banks. My year in real estate was parallel with the Tennessee Titans season, which started great, collapsed, and ended with a terrible finish.

So what is the forecast for the real estate market at the starting line of this brand new year. Well it looks like we still have continuing problems that will make this race uphill and difficult. Foreclosures, unemployment, high inventories, deflated prices, and a lack of consumer confidence did not magically disappear with the new year. But with that being said I do see some signs of improvement for the coming year. I am seeing fewer foreclosures coming on the market especially in the higher price ranges. The lack of competition from foreclosures and short sales should drive prices higher in the coming year. It is projected that the national economy will grow and improve in 2011. The improved economy plus excellent interest rates should bolster consumer confidence and bring more buyers back into the market. I believe we will start seeing the real estate market turn around this year, however it will most likely be a slow process.

The start of a new year is both a time to look forward and to reflect on the past. I was thinking back to 10 years ago. The year 2000 started off great with a Millennium celebration in New Orleans, the best year in real estate sales that my wife and I had ever had and great fun and accomplishments of family and friends, and a final 2000 Titans Victory on Christmas night. Life seemed too perfect.

Then in the first week of January 2001 we found out that my wife had cancer which was terminal by July, then followed by 9/11, the endless wars and fear and decline in our entire nation. The lesson learned is that the performance of the housing market and economy are of little importance as compared to your family and your health. So regardless of how the real estate market is doing focus on the most important things in life and everyone have a great 2011.

The Bad News, Bad News, Good News!

What a week for Real Estate news.

Here are just a few of the headlines.

1. July existing home sales tumble by 27.2%
(Remember that's 27% below July 09's miserable #'s.)

2. New home sales reach lowest levels on record.
(Statistics for new home sales were first recorded in 1963.)

3. Tennessee ranks #2 nationally in bankruptcies.
(Nevada is #1)

4. Inventory of unsold homes reaches record highs.
(This is a major problem in the recovery of home values.)

5. Home ownership rates are lowest since the early 60's.
("The American dream" is out of grasp to so many.)

None of these headlines were news to me. I'm living it, and August figures will not be better. After a terrific March and April the market shut down, but I've seen this pattern of roller coaster recovery before.

After the 1986 tax change laws, the market went south. Savings and loan institutions were going under daily. Developers and builders were bankrupting. The inventory soared. Well it took years to come back, but one day the inventory was absorbed, and suddenly if you put your sign in the yard a contract would beat you back to the office. Although it took four years to recover during this period, we saw brief surges in sales. Like a wave rolling into the beach, sales would briefly peak only to crash on the shore and dissipate.

So whats' a seller to do. First stay in the market. Sales happen even in the slowest economic times, and when we do hit these brief spikes in sales you can be in a position to ride them to a successful conclusion where low interest rates, great prices, and selection await a qualified buyer.

The second suggestion to a seller is to be competitive in price. Values have dropped, and a seller is competing with short sales, foreclosures, and other distress sales. You have to find the price that will sell the property, and remember your home value has nothing to do with what you paid for it, or what you "have to get out of it."

The third suggestion is, you must have your home updated and in it's best condition. The buyers do not want to choose their own wall colors and carpets or remodel your kitchen. They do want a pristine home that's move in ready. With high inventories in a competitive market one negative feature can mean the difference of your home losing out to a competitor.

One day our inventory will balance, and we will be back to a sellers market. But until then, you must do everything right to be ready to catch that next sales spike and take advantage of this fabulous buyers market with 50 year lows in interest rates. And that's the good news...